Explainer: Palestinian statehood bid

Activists rally in support of Palestinian U.N. bid for statehood near fence separating Israel from Gaza.Palestinians set to request U.N. recognition of "Palestine" as new member stateU.S. holds veto power, has pledged to vote down statehood bidIsraeli PM has rejected pre-1967 border lines as basis for Palestinian stateMany believe move may worsen relations between Palestinian Authority and Israel

(CNN) -- During the course of the United Nations General Assembly the Palestinians have indicated that they will formally ask the world body for recognition of "Palestine" as a new member state. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has told U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon he will officially submit the statehood request on Friday which will ask that the U.N. Security Council take up the issue of Palestinian statehood.

Despite much talk of a U.N. vote on Palestinian statehood this week, neither of the organization's two major organs, the Security Council and the General Assembly are expected to take immediate action on the request.

Why is this move happening now?

The Palestinian Authority leadership says they are making the request for statehood now for a few reasons. Firstly, they argue that over the course of the past two years the Palestinian Authority has made great progress in building the infrastructure necessary for maintaining a sovereign state. They point to the various improvements in governance, security, and physical infrastructure as indicators of their readiness.

Palestinians also point to the September 2011 date that U.S. President Barack Obama laid out over a year ago as the deadline for the successful negotiation with Israel for a two-state solution. The Quartet of Middle East peace, made up of the U.N., European Union, Russia, and the U.S. also set this month as the target date for a negotiated deal. With that deadline not having been met Palestinian leaders argue that that the best way to enhance the chances for peace moving forward is for international recognition of a Palestinian state.

Who is agreeing with the Palestinians' demand, and who is disagreeing?

In the 15-member Security Council, the one body that can confer full U.N. membership, the Palestinians enjoy the support of a majority of the countries. But the United States, which as one of the five permanent members holds veto power, has pledged it will vote down the statehood bid, ending the Palestinians' chance to win full membership.

In the General Assembly, where a vote would be non-binding, the Palestinians enjoy the support of more than 120 of the 193 members and passage of a statehood resolution would be all but assured.

Why do the U.S. and Israel oppose the call?

Both the U.S. and Israel consider the Palestinian strategy a unilateral move that will only hinder the possibility of reaching a peaceful settlement to the Middle East conflict. U.N. action, both countries argue, does not take the place of direct negotiations. Speaking recently to reporters, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said: "We believe strongly that the road to peace and two states living side by side does not go through New York, it goes through Jerusalem and Ramallah."

Israel calls for peace talks amid Palestinian statehood push

Surely, if the U.S and Israel don't agree then it won't mean any difference on the ground?

Without the acknowledgement of Israel and the U.S., United Nations recognition of a Palestinian state based on armistice lines that existed before 1967 is largely a symbolic move. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected these lines as the basis for a Palestinian state, calling them "indefensible." Therefore the borders, airspace, and movement of people in a new "Palestine" would continue to be controlled by the Israeli military and it would be unlikely to change the presence of about 300,000 Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

If a Palestinian state is recognized, what could that mean for relations/negotiations with Israel?

Many believe recognition of a Palestinian state would exacerbate already poor relations between the Palestinian Authority government and Israel. Some politicians in Israel have called for unilateral responses to the Palestinian bid including the outright annexation of territory in the West Bank, the withholding of tax revenue collected on behalf of the Palestinians, and the cancellation of various parts of the 1993 Oslo accords that created the Palestinian Authority. Potential moves like this and what some believe could be a rising level of Palestinian frustration at unmet expectations could add a great deal of tension on the ground and contribute to the possibility of an outbreak of violence. Palestinian Authority leadership maintains that recognition would help put pressure on Israel to be more reasonable in future negotiations.

Is there risk in this move for the Palestinian Authority?

Beyond the potential response from Israel, the Palestinian bid at the U.N. is risky. The U.S. is opposed to the move and lawmakers in congress have threatened to pull the plug on hundreds of millions of dollars in annual American aid. Others say the move will unrealistically raise expectations of Palestinians and, if little actually changes on the ground, could contribute to regional tensions. The Palestinian Authority could also risk losing support from its own people. The Hamas political faction, which controls Gaza, does not support the U.N. strategy and there are concerns among the Palestinian refugees in the region that the statehood bid could compromise their "right of return" to their homeland.

Would U.N. recognition give the Palestinians anything substantive?

Recognition by the United Nations could potentially give Palestinians greater access to international bodies like the International Criminal Court and the Human Rights Council. Venues like these could serve as a place for Palestinians to file legal challenges to Israeli practices and exert more international pressure on Israel.

What's the current state of negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians?

Currently there are no talks going on between Israeli and Palestinians. Talks fell apart a year ago over disagreements on the issue of Israeli West Bank settlements. Coming off a self-imposed 10-month halt in settlement construction, Israel said it would not renew the freeze. This led the Palestinians to quit the negotiations. In an effort to head off the Palestinian's statehood request at the U.N. the United States and various European countries have been engaged in 11th hour diplomacy to get the talks restarted but few expect a breakthrough deal.

September 20, 2011 -- Updated 1806 GMT (0206 HKT) CNN's Tim Lister breaks down the Palestinian vote for statehood and what it could mean for the U.S. September 21, 2011 -- Updated 0049 GMT (0849 HKT) The Palestinians have indicated that they will formally ask the United Nations for recognition of "Palestine" as a new member state.September 21, 2011 -- Updated 0943 GMT (1743 HKT) As a package is developed to avoid a showdown over Palestinian statehood, Obama and Abbas plan to meet.September 21, 2011 -- Updated 0954 GMT (1754 HKT) Rarely has so much time and energy been devoted to an issue less consequential than the Palestinian bid for statehood, Aaron David Miller writes.September 21, 2011 -- Updated 0117 GMT (0917 HKT) The Mideast peace process is stalled and the U.S. faces the possibility of having to veto a U.N. resolution on Palestinian statehood. How did it get to this point? September 20, 2011 -- Updated 1920 GMT (0320 HKT) CNN's Wolf Blitzer takes a look at America's role in the struggle for peace between Israel and the Palestinians.September 21, 2011 -- Updated 0049 GMT (0849 HKT) Nabil Saeed lays out large rolls of red, green, white and black cloth on his workshop table. These are the colors of his homeland, one he hopes will soon become a fully recognized state. Today's five most popular stories

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Israel: Palestinian bid at U.N. will fail

Demonstrators call for a Palestinian state during a protest in the West Bank on Saturday. STORY HIGHLIGHTSNetanyahu: The Security Council will not approve the requestHe says the Palestinians are thwarting direct peace talksHamas has asked the Palestinian Authority not to go to the UNRELATED TOPICSIsraelPalestinian PoliticsUnited Nations Jerusalem (CNN) -- A Palestinian bid to become a member state of the United Nations will not succeed, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday, predicting the Security Council will not approve the move.

"Their attempt to be accepted as a proper member of the U.N. will fail because this attempt must go through the Security Council," Netanyahu said at the start of the weekly Israeli Cabinet meeting. "The ruling decisions regarding membership in the U.N. go through this council. I am convinced that as a result of the operations of the United States working with us in a tight cooperation and as a result of actions of other governments, this attempt will fail."

The Palestinians "are doing every possible thing in order to thwart direct negotiations for peace," Netanyahu said, adding: "They must understand that despite their current attempt to bypass negotiations again by going to the U.N., peace will only be accomplished through direct negotiations."

The Palestinian territories currently have observer status, meaning delegates can speak in the General Assembly but not vote.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said Friday in a speech in Ramallah that he will pursue full U.N. membership. "We want a seat at the United Nations, and we don't want anything more," he said.

A successful vote in the Security Council or the General Assembly will not lead to an established Palestinian state, but would allow the Palestinians upgraded international status, meaning they can pursue legal action against Israel.

Hamas, the Palestinian organization that controls Gaza, has warned Abbas not to take that step, saying it would show a willingness to acknowledge and negotiate with Israel, which would "deprive the Palestinian people from their right to come back to their homeland."

"We are warning him not to go," said senior Hamas official Mahmoud al-Zahar. "This is going to make more division inside the Palestinian people."

Asked whether there is anything that would dissuade the Palestinians from making the request, Maen Rashid Areikat, the Palestine Liberation Organization's chief representative to the United States, told CNN's "State of the Union" on Sunday that "a viable alternative would be clear terms of reference to return to the negotiations, clear time frame and an end game. To the Palestinian, the end game is freedom, to be able to live free and for the Israeli military occupation to end."

The Palestinians avoided peace talks, Netanyahu said, even after the Israeli government, under U.S. pressure, declared a 10-month freeze on new construction in settlements -- a sticking point for the Palestinians. The 10-month freeze -- which did not include East Jerusalem, as Israel claims sovereignty over the entire city -- ended in September 2010. The Palestinians demanded the freeze continue as a condition for resumption of peace talks, but Israel refused.

Areikat said Sunday, "we cannot continue to negotiate while the Israelis are planting our territory, the same land that will become our state in the future, with illegal settlements."

He said the Palestinians have no wish to undermine U.S. President Barack Obama, but "we wish that the United States would reconsider. We wish that the United States will actually cast a vote in favor of Palestinians seeking freedom, because this is the natural position of the United States. This is what we have seen in the region by the United States -- support for all the peoples in the region who are seeking freedom and independence."

The five permanent members of the Security Council are the United States, China, France, Russia and the United Kingdom.

The United States has vowed to veto a full membership application, should it come before the U.N. Security Council. The Palestinian government could also go to the General Assembly, where only a majority vote would be needed to gain a lesser status -- that of permanent observer, similar to the position the Vatican currently holds. A vote in its favor would be all but assured.

But Netanyahu said the General Assembly is not the "declared destination of the Palestinians" as permanent observer status would not carry the same weight and importance as an approved membership state application.

"I think the Palestinians understand that they have to negotiate borders and security with the Israelis," former U.S. President Bill Clinton said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." Clinton said seeking U.N. membership is "an act of frustration by the Palestinians."

The United States will veto it, he said, and "the rest of us have got to contain the fallout ... This is one of those deals where we're either going to go forward or fall back, and I favor going forward."

The United States has "been working tirelessly to try to prevent this happening," Michael Oren, Israeli ambassador to the United States, told "State of the Union." "American diplomatic representatives have been working with other members of the Quartet, the European Union, the Russians, the U.N., to create a format which would be acceptable to us -- and we are very, very close now to the American position -- and to persuade the Palestinians to desist from going to the U.N., to come back to the negotiating table."

"We need to get to a two-state solution based on a Palestinian state living side by side with a Jewish state, in permanent and mutual peace and recognition," Oren said.

Mideast Quartet envoy Tony Blair told ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, "I understand why the Palestinians feel that they should go to the United Nations, and by the way, they're perfectly entitled to go there. But I think what we will be looking for over the next few days is a way of putting together something that allows their claims and legitimate aspirations for statehood to be recognized whilst actually renewing the only thing that's going to produce a state, which is a negotiation directly between the two sides."

Netanyahu said he will also be at the U.N. General Assembly this week.

"The U.N. is not the place where Israel gets much applause," he said, "but it is important that I will go there in order to represent the state of Israel and in order to present the truth, and the truth is that Israel wants peace."

His U.N. appearance has two purposes, Netanyahu said -- to ensure the Palestinian bid "will not succeed," and to present Israel's truth to the General Assembly "which I believe is also the general truth, our desire for peace."

While these topics are important any time, he said, "they are important today many times over, when the Middle East is going through this tremendous shaking, that has shook Tunisia and Yemen and Libya and Egypt and Syria and ever other part of the region."

"At these times we need a government with a policy that stands tough and firm for our needs for a peace settlement, and nonetheless we are willing to enter negotiations for peace with our Palestinian neighbors should they desire to do so," Netanyahu said.

Netanyahu said he believes that "eventually, after the smoke clears from the events at the U.N., the Palestinians will come to their senses, so I hope, and abandon these negotiation-bypassing moves and sit down (at) the table in order for us to achieve peace and security."

CNN's Guy Azriel and Kevin Flower contributed to this report.

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Israel warns against Palestinian move

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman has warned of dire consequences. STORY HIGHLIGHTSNEW: A U.N. report says Israeli occupation is keeping Palestinian politics "stagnant"A declaration of statehood would have "dire consequences," Israel's foreign minister saysThe Palestinians plan to take their plea to the United NationsThe U.S. will veto the question if it comes to the Security CouncilRELATED TOPICSIsraelPalestine Jerusalem (CNN) -- The unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state would have "dire consequences," Israel's foreign minister warned Wednesday, a day after Palestinians said they would take the proposal to the United Nations.

Avigdor Liberman did not elaborate in his comments on Israel Radio, but said previous Israeli concessions like the withdrawal from Gaza had not resulted in peace.

Frustrated with stalled negotiations with Israel, Palestinians plan to appeal to U.N. member states to recognize their territories as an independent country.

But a United Nations report warned Wednesday that the Palestinians are not yet ready politically for statehood, even while it said the government did carry out basic functions.

"Government functions are now sufficient for the functioning government of a state," the U.N. Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace Process said, calling it "considerable achievement."

But Israeli occupation has contributed to keeping Palestinian politics "stagnant," Robert Serry's office warned.

"There is only so much that can be done in conditions of prolonged occupation, unresolved final status issues, no serious progress on a two-state solution, and a continuing Palestinian divide," Serry said.

The Palestinians currently have non-state observer status at the United Nations.

The United States has said it will veto full Palestinian statehood if the question comes to the U.N. Security Council.

"It should not come as a shock to anyone in this room that the U.S. opposes a move in New York by the Palestinians to try to establish a state that can only be achieved through negotiations," State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said last week. "So yes, if something comes to a vote in the U.N. Security Council, the U.S. will veto."

Instead, the Palestinian Authority is expected to go to the General Assembly, where it could get "observer state" status, similar to the position that the Vatican currently holds. A vote in its favor is all but assured.

"Some of the members of the United Nations, important members, it seems to me that they're coming to the realization that this is not theatric, because this is real," Palestinian U.N. envoy Riyad Mansour said.

The upgraded status would give the Palestinians greater access to U.N. agencies, including possibly the International Criminal Court, where it could make criminal claims against Israel.

The Obama administration has expressed concern that Palestinian action at the United Nations could intensify conditions on the ground and delay already-stalled negotiations with Israel.

"Our objective is not to intensify with anyone or to isolate anyone, or to de-legitimize anyone," Mansour said. "Our objective is to legitimize our rights and to advance the cause of the two-state solution."

The U.S. State Department has sent two diplomatic envoys to the region to help Mideast Quartet envoy Tony Blair gain Israeli and Palestinian approval on a Quartet statement on a set of principles in advance of the Palestinian bid next week.

CNN's Paul Colsey contributed to this report.

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